Hazard, Vulnerability and Risk Analysis
Mannar district has been continuously affected by floods, drought, and health hazards. Coastal areas of the district and the island are facing a threat of tsunami. Being continuously affected by sudden floods, drought and health hazards.
Mannar district had not experienced flooding in the recent past; however in December 2010 and early 2011 the district experienced flood situation resulting in displacement of war affected returnees and other ordinary communities. These floods affected Manthai West, Madhu, Mussali, Mannar Town and Nanattan DS divisions. The flood experienced in Mannar district was not caused due to rainfall, but resulted due to the overflowing of tanks in Anuradhapura, Vavuniya, Mullaitivu and Kilinochchi districts.
Main disasters affecting the District
Table 1.1 - History of Disasters and Probability of Disaster Episodes in the District
(Remarks may indicate the duration, severity, intensity of rain causing the hazard, magnitude of the earthquake causing the tsunami etc.
Hazard Type |
Year & month of Occurrence |
Affected Divisions |
frequency |
Impact on population |
Impacts on infrastructure, assets, environment |
|||
Deaths |
Displaced Members |
Affected Members |
||||||
Flood |
2010 Dec |
05 |
Once year |
01 |
8,250 |
26,347 |
Damaged |
|
2011 Nov |
05 |
Once year |
01 |
26,876 |
45,650 |
Damaged |
||
2012 Dec |
05 |
Once year |
Nil |
10,281 |
26,315 |
Damaged
|
||
2014 Dec |
05 |
Once year |
Nil |
6381 |
6381 |
Damaged |
||
2015 Nov |
03 |
Once year |
Nil |
4040 |
16023 |
Damaged |
||
Cyclone |
2012 Nov-Dec |
02 |
Once year |
Nil |
41 |
41 |
House Damaged |
|
Tsunami |
2004 Dec |
00 |
Once year |
Nil |
Nil |
Nil |
Nil |
|
Drought |
2012June |
05 |
Once year |
Nil |
Nil |
14,270 |
||
2013 June |
05 |
Once year |
Nil |
Nil |
38,583 |
|||
2014 June |
05 |
Once year |
Nil |
Nil |
76870 |
|||
Epidemic |
2009 |
03 |
Two time |
Nil |
Nil |
150 |
Cultivation and House Damaged
|
|
2010 |
02 |
Two time |
Nil |
Nil |
98 |
|||
2011 |
03 |
Two time |
Nil |
Nil |
224 |
|||
2012 |
02 |
Two time |
Nil |
Nil |
167 |
|||
2013 |
02 |
Two time |
Nil |
Nil |
58 |
Table 1.2 Main hazards per division
Each DS division in Mannar district is prone to different types of hazards in different time periods
The table below gives an analysis of trends and types of hazards and their trends
Division |
Type of Hazard |
Possible areas to be affected |
Best case scenario |
Worst case scenario |
Mannar Town |
Tsunami, Cyclone, Flood, Dengue & Drought |
Many coastal areas in Mannar Town, Nanattan, Mussali and Manthai West DS divisions are prone to tsunami. All division in the district are prone to floods. As there are no proper drainage/sewage system, during and after rainy season Mannar town division is prone to Dengue and water borne diseases. Mussali, Manthai West, Madhu and Nanattan DS division are very vulnerable to drought from May – August. |
Rain fall in Mannar district contribute very less for the floods. Disease outbreak could be managed with the available resources in the district. Major tanks in the district have been renovated and the tank bunds are strengthened. |
The floods caused by water from Overflowing tanks in the surrounding districts such as Anuradhapura, Vavuniya, Killinochchi and Mullaitivu. Floods in main access route to the districts hinder transports of relief and emergency evacuations. Many coastal areas are prone to tsunami; especially Mannar island is very vulnerable to tsunami. |
Nanattan |
Tsunami, Wild Animal Attack, Flood, & Drought |
|||
Mussali |
Tsunami, Flood, Cyclone, Wild Animal Attack, & Drought |
|||
Manthai West |
Tsunami, Wild Animal Attack, Flood & Drought |
|||
Madhu |
Flood, Cyclone, Wild Animal Attack & Drought |
1.3.2 Hazards and Vulnerability Assessment
Table: Hazardous Months
Hazard |
Probable Time of Occurrence |
Potential Impact |
Last Reported Year |
Floods |
Seasonal monsoon between Oct - Jan |
Though all DS divisions in the district are prone to floods, probability of floods depend on the highest rainfall in other districts around Mannar District and also the opening of sluice gate /overflowing of water from tanks in other districts. The flood will result in displacement of people living close to major tanks in Mannar. Major flood in the mainland of Mannar can also cut the access route to Mannar. |
Feb 2011, total 15,301 people (4,193 families) affected by floods |
Drought |
July – Sep |
Mannar is one of the districts that receive low rate of rainfall in the country. Many people in mainland of Mannar District are involved in cultivation activities for their livelihood. Famers depend on rain water for Maha season and involve in tank-irrigated cultivation in Yala season. Total cultivable land in Mannar district is 37,160 ha and most of these areas will get affected due to drought. Only people close to major tanks can do cultivation, but that sometimes becomes difficult depending on the rainfall of the year. Drought creates demand drinking water supply in the coastal areas. |
|
Outbreak of Disease/ Epidemics |
April - August |
Outbreak of dengue and other communicable disease are mostly limited to the urban and semi-urban areas in the district. However, this can be controlled by proper sewage system, popper disposal of garbage and increasing awareness. Due to high density of population in urban areas in Mannar district, there are possibilities of quick spread of communicable diseases. Spread of diseases may be accelerated due to lack of proper sewage/drainage facilities in urban areas. Filling of water stagnation areas and settlement of people in floods prone area in Mannar can also contribute to the spread of diseases. |
Past history of hazards indicates that dengue and other communicable diseases can be controlled by proper action by government departments which do not require much external support |
Cyclone |
Jan - December |
Mannar would be affected by cyclone based on the depression in Indian ocean. The coastal areas will be affected by Cyclone and recent Cyclone Makasenan also affected Mannar. Fishing is the main income generation activity in the coastal areas. Heavy Cyclone can cause destruction to the life and livelihood and infrastructure to the population. Especially, Mannar Island is very vulnerable as its sounded by sea. |
|
Tsunami |
Tsunami will create much greater destruction to the district as almost every DS division except Madhu has a long costal belt. Fishing is the main income generation activity in the coastal areas. Tsunami can cause mass destruction to the life and livelihood and infrastructure to the population. Especially, Mannar Island is very vulnerable for Tsunami. |
Table: Seasonality of Hazardson Mannar District
Hazards |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
NEM |
FIM |
SWM |
SIM |
NEM |
||||||||
Floods |
X |
X |
X |
X |
||||||||
Cyclone |
X |
X |
X |
|||||||||
Epidemic |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
|||||
Drought |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
||||||
Lightining |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
||||||
Tsunami |
||||||||||||
HE Conflict |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
||||||
Sea Wave |
X |
X |
X |
X |
||||||||
Coastal Erosion |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
Hazard Frequency
Hazard |
Frequency |
Vulnerable divisions |
Floods |
Every year |
Mannar, Manthai west, Madhu, Nanattan and Musali divisions |
Cyclone/High wind |
Every year |
Mannar, Manthai west, Madhu, Nanattan and Musali divisions |
Drought |
Every year |
Mannar, Manthai west, Madhu, Nanattan and Musali divisions |
Epidemic |
Every year |
Mannar, Manthai west, Madhu, Nanattan and Musali divisions |
Sea surge / Storm surge |
Every year |
Mannar, Manthai west, Nanattan and Musali divisions |
Table: Seasonality of Epidemics (specify)- as applicable
Infectious diseases reported by months in MOH area-2009
S.No |
Disease |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Total |
1 |
Typhoid |
16 |
13 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
6 |
9 |
2 |
6 |
6 |
2 |
3 |
66 |
2 |
Dysentry |
1 |
- |
- |
3 |
16 |
2 |
6 |
6 |
7 |
9 |
6 |
18 |
74 |
3 |
Clinical Malaria |
3 |
2 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
1 |
- |
- |
- |
45 |
51 |
4 |
Viral Hepatitis |
2 |
1 |
4 |
7 |
12 |
3 |
9 |
3 |
4 |
8 |
- |
1 |
54 |
5 |
Tuberculosis |
4 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
3 |
4 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
3 |
2 |
28 |
6 |
Dengue |
2 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
1 |
- |
- |
- |
8 |
11 |
7 |
Meningitis |
- |
1 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
1 |
8 |
Chickenpox |
9 |
17 |
53 |
13 |
21 |
19 |
15 |
24 |
4 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
179 |
9 |
Leptospirosis |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
0 |
10 |
Rabies |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
0 |
Total |
37 |
35 |
61 |
25 |
53 |
34 |
41 |
40 |
22 |
26 |
12 |
78 |
464 |
Source: RDHS Office, Mannar
Infectious diseases reported by months in MOH area-2010
S.No |
Disease |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Total |
1 |
Typhoid |
4 |
6 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
4 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
3 |
29 |
2 |
Dysentry |
8 |
4 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
8 |
1 |
8 |
2 |
3 |
- |
40 |
3 |
Clinical Malaria |
1 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
2 |
1 |
4 |
4 |
Viral Hepatitis |
2 |
3 |
3 |
0 |
- |
- |
2 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
- |
1 |
14 |
5 |
Tuberculosis |
0 |
2 |
1 |
4 |
1 |
- |
2 |
- |
2 |
4 |
1 |
6 |
23 |
6 |
Dengue |
16 |
21 |
12 |
16 |
1 |
29 |
78 |
159 |
53 |
18 |
11 |
7 |
421 |
7 |
Meningitis |
1 |
0 |
1 |
- |
- |
- |
1 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
3 |
8 |
Chickenpox |
1 |
- |
1 |
1 |
4 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
1 |
- |
- |
8 |
9 |
Leptospirosis |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
9 |
9 |
10 |
Rabies |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
0 |
Total |
33 |
36 |
20 |
24 |
9 |
35 |
92 |
163 |
67 |
27 |
18 |
27 |
551 |
Source: RDHS Office, Mannar
Infectious diseases reported by months in RDHS Mannar-2011
S.No |
Disease |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Total |
1 |
Food poisioning |
- |
- |
- |
- |
74 |
3 |
- |
- |
4 |
- |
- |
- |
81 |
2 |
Dengue fever |
5 |
3 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
- |
15 |
8 |
28 |
69 |
3 |
Tuberculosis |
7 |
3 |
- |
1 |
3 |
3 |
2 |
5 |
1 |
4 |
1 |
6 |
36 |
4 |
Dysentry |
- |
1 |
- |
1 |
1 |
1 |
3 |
3 |
4 |
2 |
4 |
6 |
26 |
5 |
Typhas fever |
5 |
8 |
1 |
- |
- |
- |
1 |
1 |
- |
1 |
- |
4 |
21 |
6 |
Chicken pox |
- |
- |
- |
- |
4 |
2 |
- |
- |
4 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
15 |
7 |
Malaria |
7 |
3 |
3 |
- |
1 |
- |
- |
1 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
15 |
8 |
Enteric fever |
1 |
1 |
- |
- |
- |
2 |
4 |
- |
1 |
- |
4 |
- |
13 |
9 |
Mumps |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
1 |
- |
- |
4 |
1 |
1 |
- |
7 |
10 |
Meningitis |
- |
- |
- |
- |
1 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
1 |
1 |
3 |
Total |
25 |
19 |
7 |
3 |
86 |
14 |
11 |
11 |
18 |
24 |
22 |
46 |
286 |
Source: RDHS Office, Mannar
Infectious diseases reported by months in RDHS Mannar -2012
S.No |
Disease |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Total |
1 |
Food poisioning |
8 |
0 |
5 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
16 |
2 |
Dengue fever |
33 |
6 |
6 |
5 |
7 |
5 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
10 |
18 |
97 |
3 |
Tuberculosis |
2 |
5 |
9 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
2 |
4 |
8 |
8 |
3 |
10 |
63 |
4 |
Dysentry |
3 |
0 |
3 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
3 |
4 |
8 |
5 |
32 |
5 |
Typhas fever |
9 |
7 |
11 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
35 |
6 |
Chicken pox |
2 |
0 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
7 |
Malaria |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
8 |
Enteric fever |
1 |
3 |
0 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
7 |
24 |
9 |
8 |
57 |
9 |
Mumps |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
10 |
Meningitis |
0 |
0 |
2 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
2 |
0 |
1 |
8 |
Total |
58 |
21 |
38 |
18 |
14 |
12 |
5 |
11 |
26 |
42 |
30 |
44 |
319 |
Source: RDHS Office, Mannar
Hazards that the district is prone to, and the assessment of the potential risk
Disaster |
Types of disaster |
Priority in the current year |
Potential Risks Involved |
Remarks |
Disease Outbreaks (Dengue, Cholera and diarrhea) |
Natural in nature/ results of human action |
High |
Death |
Mannar district is prone to dengue, cholera and diarrhea outbreak especially after the rainy season. Due to the improper sewage and drainage system and lack of garbage disposal facilities, Mannar Town DS division (Mannar Island) faces issues. As Mannar town is lower than the sea level, constructing a proper drainage system is a big challenge. |
Sickness |
||||
Loss of income |
||||
Drought / Prolonged dry spell |
Natural in nature |
Medium |
Crop destruction |
Many parts of the district have experienced dry spells, leading to destruction of crops and food insecurity among the population. |
Hunger |
||||
Loss of Human Lives |
||||
Loss of animals |
||||
Floods / Water logging |
Natural in nature |
High |
Death |
Several parts in Mannar districts are prone to floods and water logging due to continuous rain. However, major floods situations are caused by overflowing water from tanks in other districts especially during Oct – Feb. |
Disease outbreak |
||||
Impeded movements |
||||
Destruction of properties |
||||
Tsunami |
Natural in nature |
Low |
Death |
Tsunami will create much greater destruction to the district as almost every DS division except Madhu has a long costal belt. Fishing is the main income generation activity in the coastal areas. Tsunami can cause mass destruction to the life and livelihood and infrastructure to the population. Especially, Mannar Island is very vulnerable for Tsunami. |
Loss of properties |
||||
Loss of income |
||||
Disease outbreak |
Probability of occurrence of the top 4 hazards in Mannar
Hazards |
Probability score |
Disease Outbreaks (Dengue, Cholera and diarrhea) |
3 |
Floods/Water Logging |
3 |
Drought / Prolonged dry spell |
2 |
Tsunami |
1 |
Relative degrees of potential impact
Hazards |
Size of population |
Potential lethality |
Potential destruction of critical infrastructure |
Disease Outbreak |
2 |
2 |
0 |
Drought /Prolonged dry spell |
2 |
2 |
0 |
Floods/Water logging |
3 |
1 |
2 |
Tsunami |
3 |
3 |
3 |
3- High
2- Medium
1- Low
0- not applicable
1.3.4 Other emergencies and disastrous situations that can happen
(Other emergencies and disastrous situations which have not occurred in the division before, but could happen in the future due to the following reasons could also be responded to, using this plan)
Disaster Category |
Possible Crisis or Emergency Situation |
Disasters related to natural causes, but induced by human activities |
Blockage of surface water drainage Floods due to filling of flood retention low land Reservoir and dam related floods Destruction of flood retention bunds an dikes in rivers |
Due to technological causes |
Collapse of old building or other permanent structure Major fire, Gas/ petroleum/ chemical leak or pipe burst Major rail or road accidents Explosion of a fuel browser Contamination of drinking water sources Plane crash Collapse of bridges and elevated water tanks |